EXCLUSIVE
Scenarios
| Rank | Scenario | Probability | Impact | Bias | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading scenario simulator… | |||||
How to use this tool
Scenario Simulator ranks probabilistic market paths using stress, Opportunity Engine, funding, liquidation and narrative inputs.
How it works
- The base case is the highest composite scenario — probability blended with potential impact.
- Probability shows how well current market conditions support each scenario.
- Impact estimates how large the move could be if the scenario plays out.
- BTC skew gives an indicative directional range for Bitcoin under each scenario.
- Use triggers and suggested actions as a planning framework, not as trade signals.
What to consider
- Rule-based model from local PEPS pipelines — refreshes about every 30 minutes.
- Scenarios can coexist; markets often blend multiple narratives.
- Skew ranges are illustrative stress-test bands, not price targets.
- Pair with Market Narrative, Opportunity Engine and Market Stress for confirmation.
- Exclusive PEPS intelligence — not financial advice.