BTC / Gold Correlation tracks how Bitcoin moves relative to COMEX Gold using Pearson correlation on daily log returns.
Positive readings suggest BTC and gold are moving together (macro uncertainty / store-of-value narrative); negative readings suggest a risk-on vs haven split.
What it measures
Assets: BTC-USD and COMEX Gold futures (GC=F) from Yahoo Finance daily closes.
Method: Pearson correlation and OLS beta of BTC on Gold using overlapping trading-day log returns.
Windows: 30d / 90d / 180d of observations, plus a rolling correlation series.
How to read it
Store-of-value sync (≥0.45): BTC and gold rise/fall together — macro / inflation uncertainty may dominate.
Mild positive: partial linkage; each asset still has idiosyncratic drivers.
Neutral: noisy or decoupled in that window.
Risk split / hedge: BTC behaves more like a risk asset while gold acts as a haven (or vice versa).
Using BTC / Gold Correlation on PEPS Crypto
Pick 30D / 90D / 180D and read the regime headline.
Use the rolling chart to see whether linkage is rising or fading.
Compare period returns for BTC vs Gold in the context cards.
Pair with BTC / Nasdaq and Correlation Matrix for full macro + crypto context.
How it works
- Data refreshes daily (~22:35 local) from Yahoo Finance chart API.
- Returns are log(close_t / close_t−1) on overlapping dates only.
- Regimes: Store sync ≥0.45, Mild ≥0.15, Neutral >−0.15, Risk split >−0.45, else Hedge.
- Delta compares correlation to the previous PEPS snapshot for that window.
- Rolling series uses the same window length walked across recent history.
What to consider
- BTC can rally on crypto-native flows while gold is flat — ρ may fall.
- A flight-to-safety day can lift gold while BTC sells off — negative ρ.
- Always confirm with volume, funding, and flow tools before acting.
- Beta can exceed 1 when BTC amplifies gold moves (or vice versa).
- Use alongside BTC / Nasdaq and BTC / DXY when those tools are live.
Frequently asked questions
- Why GC=F instead of spot gold or GLD?
- COMEX Gold futures (GC=F) are a liquid macro gold benchmark on Yahoo Finance with reliable daily history. GLD is an ETF alternative; spot XAU feeds are less consistently available.
- Does positive correlation mean BTC is digital gold?
- Not necessarily — it only means co-movement in that window. Narrative and structural roles can differ even when ρ is positive.
- What does beta mean here?
- OLS beta of BTC returns on Gold returns: roughly how much BTC moves when Gold moves 1 unit in return space over the window.
Conclusion
BTC / Gold Correlation answers how synchronized Bitcoin is with gold as a macro asset right now.
Use it to judge store-of-value vs risk-on dynamics — then confirm with equity linkage and crypto flow tools.